Will the flight from economic distress beats the fight against COVID-19 virus? The economy of India is going to face an output loss of $190 bn(according to Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company) as the wheels of commerce have been ground to halt. The arithmetic of the GDP of India is about $3 trillion, if it remains shut down for a month with a 100% drop inactivity it will create an output loss of $250 bn but as it is likely to be shut for 47 days it will create an output loss of $190 bn assuming that it will open on May 17. Albeit, there could be a beacon of hope as the oil price has seen a significant reduction due to less demand in the world, it will provide $40-45 bn of benefit in terms of trade deficit this year. Another way to decrease this is to replace China-made goods with India made products, it will create $20 bn benefit in trade deficit. But still willy-nilly it will create $100 billion or thereabouts of output loss which is a signifi...
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