The stark reality of jobs post-pandemic COVID-19

The pandemic COVID-19 started in China, while the rest of the world remained oblivious to the crises ahead which could change the course of history. Neither world wars nor 9/11 have impacted the world economy to this extent, but a virus brought the whole world to its knees. Now is the perfect occasion to juxtapose a virus to the world’s stockpile of weapons.

In India, the news of job cuts and slowing down of the economy were all around the corner especially in the automobile sector before the pandemic was even started. But it exacerbated this and took other sectors to its control. As the government had only one arsenal of lockdown to stop this virus from spreading, it resulted in zero demand and break-in consumption cycle which affected most of the manufacturing, IT, travel and hospitality sectors. Further, with no generation of wealth, the only options for the big firms were to shoulder the burden with its employees. This led to emotional and distress emails of job cuts, sacking of employees, asking employees to take long leaves without salaries and slashing of salaries up to 60%. The reports suggest that the job cuts of 15-20% is on the anvil. If the arithmetic and calculation goes right the numbers tot up to 100 million jobless people post-pandemic.

Further, more to it is the highly impacted aviation and hospitality sector. For these sectors, there is no hope as the people will find fear to travel until the vaccines are not made. The carelessness and selfishness of the government to benefit capitalists by not providing hapless migrant workers with proper transportation to their home destination have put them in grave danger as they will be fearful in rejoining the manufacturing industry. This roadblock can create high inefficiency and low production, resulting in inflation.

After, the lockdown is over the government has a herculean task to achieve. But there is beacon hope which could help India to normalcy. The expert suggests that India will have a U-Shaped recovery with a lower plateau period of 3-4 months. The raison d'etre that India will achieve equilibrium early then the rest of the world because it is less dependent on exports, 50-60% of GDP is domestic consumption. The government just needs to bridge a solution to provide cash in hand for informal workers by schemes like MGNREGA and monetary stimulus to business so that they could revive the consumption cycle. And, if the government could encash on companies leaving China, it would create job opportunities shortly and help India revive and strengthen its economy.

Comments

Will the flight from economic distress beats the fight against COVID-19 virus?

Will the flight from economic distress beats the fight against COVID-19 virus? The economy of India is going to face an output loss of $190 bn(according to Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company) as the wheels of commerce have been ground to halt. The arithmetic of the GDP of India is about $3 trillion, if it remains shut down for a month with a 100% drop inactivity it will create an output loss of $250 bn but as it is likely to be shut for 47 days it will create an output loss of $190 bn assuming that it will open on May 17. Albeit, there could be a beacon of hope as the oil price has seen a significant reduction due to less demand in the world, it will provide $40-45 bn of benefit in terms of trade deficit this year. Another way to decrease this is to replace China-made goods with India made products, it will create $20 bn benefit in trade deficit. But still willy-nilly it will create $100 billion or thereabouts of output loss which is a signifi...

Jeff Bezos may become the world’s first trillionaire by 2026

In the recent study conducted, by Comparisun, of 25 individuals company analysed, only eleven have the chance to become a trillionaire during their lifetime. According to the study, Jeff Bezos is most likely to become the first trillionaire by 2026 when he will be aged 62. Despite losing an estimated $38 billion in divorce and even more in the pandemic, Jeff is still the richest persons and his net worth growing at a rate of 34% on average to past five years. With a current net worth of 142.8 billion and if the arithmetic goes right he would easily become a trillionaire($1000 billion) by 2026. There are many other names to this list, India richest Mukesh Ambani could become a trillionaire by 2033 at age 75. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg could gain this title after 2036 with his current growth rate. Alibaba’s Jack Ma could become a trillionaire in 2030 when he will be aged 65. For the study, Comparisun analysed the market capitalisation of the highest value com...

One Nation One Election

Elections are the most important part of any democratic country. Different countries have different methods to elect their representatives to form the government. Unlike the US where Presidential elections are conducted, India has national elections for the formation of a new Parliament (to elect new members of Parliament) to form a new govt at the center headed by the PM with his council of ministers. Similarly, election for formation of new State Legislative Assembly( by electing new members of legislative assembly)to form new govt headed by CM with his council of ministers. But, curiously enough, the above two sets of elections are seldom conducted simultaneously with the result our country happens to witness mini elections round the year causing immense financial strain on exchequer besides causing unwanted and avoidable shifting of manpower from productive deployment to manage these mini elections. So, with the changing demography the countries have their own modus operandi...

Financial Post And Essays

Search This Blog